Primary school pupil numbers fallen nationally, creating financial risks for some schools: NAO

According to the report, published yesterday (22 April), between 2018/19 and 2024/25 demand for primary school places fell by 3%, with a further fall of 7% forecast by 2030, albeit with local variation. Unfilled school places rose from 10% to 14% in the same period.

As most school funding is based on pupil numbers, the NAO warned this creates financial risks for some schools and could impact educational quality, particularly for certain groups such as disadvantaged pupils.

The report said: “Although wider decisions impact a school’s financial position, we estimate that a projected reduction of 56,300 fewer primary school pupils in 2027 could mean that schools receive £288 million less in per-pupil funding.

“Falling pupil numbers and funding could affect pupils inequitably, with pupils from more disadvantaged backgrounds being disproportionately impacted.”

The report observed that falling demand for school places follows many years of the sector needing to create more places for pupils.

“In response, the Department for Education (DfE) significantly increased capital funding, including through local authority allocations and the Free Schools Programme. Interventions to meet need over that period may have delivered more school places than were needed.”

The report noted that although local authorities provide DfE with school capacity data and other data sources on their response to pupil number changes, DfE could “make better use of this to monitor how schools respond or to understand the value for money risks”.

To help schools respond to falling pupil numbers, the NAO recommended government to:

• Build on the Estates Strategy, to help the sector identify the places that may not be needed and how it can be resilient to future changes.
• Consider how the decline in pupil numbers (and corresponding reduction in funding) may impact on pupil outcomes, particularly for pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds.
• Work across government, alongside encouraging local collaboration, to support the sector to make best use of spare space.

Julia Harnden, Deputy Director of Policy at the Association of School and College Leaders, said: "The pressures on primary schools caused by the double whammy of inadequate per pupil funding and falling rolls has created a huge risk to the viability of many small primaries. There’s been no government strategy to mitigate that risk and there’s a real danger that more communities will lose schools which have been a feature of those communities for decades. The sector is working really hard to try to keep these schools open – cutting costs to the bone through measures such as mixed-aged classes. But there’s a point at which it’s not possible to employ enough staff to actually run a school and keep the doors open. The DfE has got to do more to support these schools.”

The Department for Education has been approached for comment.