Number of children in care could rise to almost 30k by 2035 if rate of need and spending left unchecked, counties warn

The findings come as England’s 39 largest councils face unprecedented pressures on children's social care budgets, with the number of children in the care of county and rural unitary authorities increasing by 29% since 2016 and expenditure on placements for children in care rising by 240%, from £1.3bn to £3.2bn.

CCN and the Society of County Treasurers (SCT) analysed children's journeys into and through the care system, and found that many families could have been supported more effectively before a child entered care, or helped to reunite sooner after entering care.

The investigation found that currently 4 in 10 young people in care have not had any formal support from local authority safeguarding services before entering the care system, with a review of cases by practitioners revealing 7 in 10 families could have received more effective support from at least one element of the multi-agency system before a child entered the care system.

CCN noted: “In almost half these cases, practitioners believed improved support may have prevented entry into care at that point.”

The report, ‘From Prevention to Reconnection: Working Towards a Multi-Agency System that Keeps More Families Together’, identifies changes that could reduce the number of children entering care while improving outcomes for vulnerable families, including:

• improved support for parental mental health, domestic abuse and substance misuse;
• stronger integration of schools within family support partnerships; and
• earlier identification of need through joined-up data and targeted support.

The report suggests that if these changes are successfully implemented by 2028, the number of children entering the care system in county and rural areas could reduce by 15% (2,250) annually; 6,000 more parents could access specialist support services; and £4.7bn in additional placements costs by 2035 could be avoided.

CCN warned: “However, even if these reforms are implemented, councils are not expected to return to a balanced budget position until 2033, accumulating a projected £2.7bn overspend in the meantime.”

The report therefore calls on government to “protect and extend” upfront investment in prevention in the coming years, including continuing targeted funding beyond 2028/29, alongside reforms to improve data sharing, family support services and multi-agency working.

The Department for Education has been approached for comment.

Lottie Winson