A National Security Assessment: Biodiversity Loss and Ecosystem Collapse – Implications for Infrastructure and Energy

Bridget Newman talks readers through the recent National Security Assessment on Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse and National Security, explaining what it means for infrastructure, energy and long-term investment planning.

The UK government has recently published a National Security Assessment on Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse and National Security (Report), analysing biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation within a national security framework.

Government Report Findings

The Report assesses, with high analytical confidence, that biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation threaten UK national security and prosperity. This represents a shift in the analysis of these issues – biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are not new scientific or policy issues, but the assessment reframes these as a systemic risk comparable to other, more “traditional” national security threats.

“Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.”

Importantly, the findings in the Report recognise that the stability of natural systems is inseparable from the stability of economic activity and key societal functions, highlighting the dependence of matters such as food systems, water availability and climate regulation on functioning ecosystems.

The Report has important implications for infrastructure, energy and long-term investment planning. For these sectors, it signals that biodiversity and ecosystems are no longer peripheral considerations but may be foundational matters whose failure can trigger consequential economic, operational and geopolitical impacts. Similarly, we think it supports the proposition that nature itself should be treated as critical infrastructure.

This article summarises the Report’s findings and sets out how these may impact infrastructure, energy and investment decision-making.

National Security Assessment for Environmental Risks

The Report applies a national security framework, drawing on methodologies used for defence and intelligence settings, to assess biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. The assessment of global ecosystem trends is presenting using confidence judgments, scenario analysis, and cascading risk modelling.

The headline finding is clear and increasingly critical: with high confidence, ongoing biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation threaten UK national security and ongoing economic resilience. Rather than treating biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as an isolated environmental issue, the assessment evaluates how degradation of natural systems can generate indirect, systemic risks to the UK’s security, prosperity and international interests, from which wider policy and sectoral implications may be inferred. The Report also emphasises uncertainty around the precise timing and pathways to ecosystem collapse, while maintaining high confidence in the direction, scale and systemic nature of the risks identified.

The assessment identifies a range of interconnected risks arising from ecosystem collapse, including food and water insecurity, supply-chain disruption, economic instability, forced migration and heightened geopolitical competition for resources. Importantly, it emphasises that these risks are not linear or isolated. Instead, they interact and amplify one another, increasing the likelihood of systemic shocks that strain governance, infrastructure and supply systems.

The Report characterises these dynamics as non-linear and mutually reinforcing, meaning that stress or failure in one system can exacerbate vulnerabilities across others. In particular, the Report warns that “cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources”.

It further identifies several globally significant ecosystems which are of strategic importance to UK interests, including tropical rainforests (such as the Amazon and Congo basins), boreal forests, Himalayan water systems, coral reefs and mangroves. However, many of these are approaching a point of collapse, with some ecosystems predicted to begin to move beyond the point of repair from the 2030s. The Report cautions that “if current rates of biodiversity loss continue, every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse”, underscoring the scale and urgency of the risk. Irreversible loss of these systems could have profound consequences for climate stability, food production and water availability, as well as intensify geopolitical instability and economic insecurity, which may have downstream impacts for the UK.

Importantly, the Report frames ecosystem collapse as a risk multiplier rather than a discrete threat. It interacts with existing pressures such as climate change, demographic growth, urbanisation and geopolitical competition, amplifying their impacts and reducing the resilience of states and societies. Therefore, the assessment treats biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation as long-term, high-impact risks that challenge traditional distinctions between environmental policy, economic planning and national security and which may have broader implications beyond environmental policy alone.

Implications for Infrastructure and Energy

Ecosystems provide many of the same functions as engineered infrastructure assets but have historically been treated as inexhaustible and self-maintaining. For infrastructure owners, developers, operators and investors, this framing raises questions around project design, physical and supply-chain risk, risk allocation, and operational resilience.

1. Disruption of reliance on natural systems: Natural systems, including forests, wetlands, soils, rivers, and coastal systems, provide critical services that underpin infrastructure operations, resilience, and cost base. The degradation or collapse of these systems may have important consequences for the infrastructure and energy sectors, which can no longer rely on ecological stability. For example, changes in hydrological cycles driven by deforestation or ecosystem degradation can reduce water availability, affecting water supply reliability and energy generation. Similarly, the loss of floodplains and wetlands increases flood risk, which can directly impact other critical infrastructure including transport corridors, electricity substations, and housing.
2. Supply-chain and geopolitical consequences: Global ecosystem collapse may disrupt supply chains for essential materials, including food and raw inputs, generating price volatility and amplifying geopolitical risks. The UK’s dependence on global ecosystems beyond its borders further underscores these operational vulnerabilities.
3. Treatment as foreseeable and material risks: The elevation of biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse to a national security concern signals that ecosystem-related risks can reasonably be interpreted as foreseeable and material, rather than speculative and remote. As a consequence, developers and operators may face increased scrutiny from regulators, investors, and lenders regarding the interactions between projects and natural systems. Supply-chain resilience, cumulative environmental impacts, and biodiversity dependencies are likely to attract greater attention, particularly for large-scale or long-lived assets.
4. Nature-based solutions as infrastructure: Project risks may need to explicitly consider ecological dependencies and place greater emphasis on the direct impact that infrastructure projects can have on the natural environment. Environmental solutions and mitigation measures, such as wetland restoration for flood control, habitat rehabilitation and soil restoration, may become increasingly essential components of infrastructure projects and be treated as forms of critical infrastructure in their own right.
5. Implications for project planning, governance and investment: Ecosystem resilience may be incorporated into national infrastructure planning, energy strategy, and long-term resilience frameworks, influencing infrastructure standards, performance metrics, and planning guidance. Projects that proactively maintain or restore ecosystem functions may reduce long-term operational risk, enhance adaptability to environmental shocks, and align with evolving regulatory and financial expectations. This interpretation positions biodiversity and ecosystems as both assets and risk mitigators. Over time, this perspective may shift project design, financing, and governance models, creating new opportunities – and responsibilities – for infrastructure developers, operators, and investors.

Conclusion

The National Security Assessment marks a turning point by recognising biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as a threat to national security, showing that ecological stability can no longer be assumed.

In turn, this may bring these risks into the core of strategic, infrastructure and investment decisions, underpinning the resilience of built assets, supply chains, and food and water security. Therefore, infrastructure planning may become increasingly dependent on not only reinforcing physical assets but also on restoring and maintaining the natural systems that support them.

Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse should no longer be viewed as solely an environmental concern, but also a strategic infrastructure issue, which may shape infrastructure and energy investment and decisions to come.

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